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Hog slaughter this 12 months have been amazingly near the extent implied by USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs experiences. For instance, over the past seven weeks hog slaughter has been down 1.40%. The September stock implied it will be down 1.37%.
If hog slaughter continues to match the September stock numbers, will probably be down 1.3% in November and down 1.6% in December-February.
By means of mid-October, weekly hog slaughter has been down a median of 67,105 head per week (2.73%). Most (55%) of this discount has occurred on Saturday. By means of mid-October, Saturday hog slaughter has been down a median of 36,699 head per week (28.2%). Throughout the identical interval non-Saturday hog slaughter has been down a median of 30,406 head per week (1.31%). The truth that many of the discount has occurred on Saturday is a sign that packer slaughter capability is greater than ample to deal with the hog runs so far. Sufficient slaughter capability can be anticipated to indicate up in tighter packer margins, and it has. Through the first 9 months of the 12 months the farm-to-wholesale pork value unfold averaged 81.1 cents per retail pound in comparison with 85.2 cents final 12 months.
Through the first eight months of 2022 U.S. pork exports have been down 14.8% with 82% of the decline being much less pork shipped to China. Aside from Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Colombia and South Korea, all different main overseas consumers purchased much less U.S. pork than in January-August 2021. USDA is predicting pork exports can be down 9.1% this 12 months and down an extra 1.7% subsequent 12 months.
Through the first eight months of 2022 U.S. pork imports have been up 33.4% with over half of the rise being extra pork from Canada. Every main overseas provider, besides Poland, has been delivery extra pork to the U.S. this 12 months. USDA is predicting pork imports can be up 25.2% this 12 months and up one other 1.9% in 2023.
USDA’s Overseas Ag Service’s October publication Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Commerce predicts 2022 world pork manufacturing can be up 2.1% with 2023 manufacturing up 1.0%. Many of the enhance is going on in China. Chinese language pork consumption is predicted to proceed outpacing their manufacturing.
Growing pork manufacturing is predicted to trigger a slowdown in pork commerce. This 12 months world pork imports are anticipated to be down 16.9% from final 12 months with China accounting for many of the decline.
Hog imports have been 0.9% decrease within the first eight months of 2022. FAS/USDA is forecasting U.S. reside hog imports can be down 0.3% this 12 months however up 0.2% subsequent 12 months. The variety of hogs being imported is holding regular at roughly 6.6 million head per 12 months. Effectively over 99.9% of U.S. hog imports come from Canada.
Barrow and gilt dressed weight has been up many of the 12 months. By means of September industrial hog slaughter was down 2.6% however due to heavier slaughter weights, pork manufacturing was solely down 2.0%.
USDA expects pork manufacturing to be down 1.9% this 12 months, however up 0.7% subsequent 12 months.
The nationwide common reside value for 51-52% lean hogs averaged $71.00/cwt in September, down $14.63 from the month earlier than however up $2.16 from a 12 months earlier. USDA is predicting fourth quarter 2022 and first quarter 2023 reside hog costs will common $63/cwt. Liveweight costs for 51-52% lean hogs averaged $67.29/cwt in 2021. USDA is forecasting 2022 at $71.08/cwt and 2023 at $67/cwt.
Iowa State College estimated farrow to complete hog income for September at $8.20 per hog marketed. September was the eighth consecutive worthwhile month for hog gross sales, nevertheless it was the bottom month-to-month revenue on this streak.
The ISU calculations put September price of manufacturing at $98.34/cwt of carcass, the bottom since Could. As you’d anticipate, price of manufacturing is pushed largely by feed costs.
The October USDA WASDE has corn costs for the grain advertising 12 months that began on Sept. 1 averaging $6.80/bu. They’re predicting Decatur soybean meal will common $390 per ton.
Corn futures are buying and selling $6.80 to $6.90 by means of early summer time.
Inflation is having a serious influence on meals costs. The retail value of pork averaged a document $5.00 per pound in September. That was up 28.4 cents from a 12 months in the past and up 5.6 cents from final month’s document. Previous to 2022 the document excessive for retail pork was $4.823 set in November 2021. So far now we have had six new month-to-month information this 12 months.
Lean hog futures contracts are buying and selling within the excessive $80s for December and the low $100s for subsequent summer time. The December 2023 contract is $6.00 decrease than the December 2022 contract.
Later as we speak USDA will launch the Chilly Storage report for Sept. 30, Poultry Slaughter for the month of September, and the Crop Progress estimates for Oct. 23.
Supply: Ron Plain, who’s solely liable for the knowledge supplied, and wholly owns the knowledge. Informa Enterprise Media and all its subsidiaries will not be liable for any of the content material contained on this info asset. The opinions of this author will not be essentially these of Farm Progress/Informa.
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